This year’s World Cup is the biggest ever: for the first time, 48 teams will compete to lift the most prestigious trophy in soccer. The action kicks off on June 11, but before that opening match between Mexico and South Africa, what are smart bettors paying attention to?
Set pieces rule
In European club football, one of the main focuses this season (2025-26) has been on set pieces. There has also been a continued move away from individual expression toward collective team effort and pressing. (The Athletic writer Michael Cox declared he had not voted for anyone in Footballer of the Year because the matches had been lacking technical quality and no one player had been of the “requisite standard”. But, if he had to, he would vote for Bruno Fernandes.) In England, certain pundits – admittedly, in many cases, former players of rival teams – have labelled Arsenal boring and said they would be the worst winners ever.
While pundits are decrying the state of the game and longing for the days of Arsene Wenger’s Arsenal and Alex Ferguson’s Manchester United, the emphasis on set pieces has given bettors plenty of opportunities. In corner markets, fans have options like over and under 10 corners, total corners, first half corners, and last match corners.
In international football, coaches have limited time to drill intricate patterns of play. Set pieces are often where they can make the most significant impact, along with morale and team camaraderie. Corners and free-kicks are actually good opportunities for players to show their individual quality: players like Kevin De Bruyne can decide a game with their technique. In World Cup group winner bets, De Bruyne’s Belgium are odds-on favorites for Group G. They face Egypt, Iran, and New Zealand.
The favorites for the trophy
Spain is widely considered the strongest team. They won the European Championships in 2024 and many of their young players have since developed into even bigger talents, perhaps most notably Lamine Yamal. They could be considered unique in not emphasising set pieces to the same degree as many top teams. Spain’s qualities in possession, particularly when players like Mikel Oyarzabal and Pedri are on form, puts them above other contenders. France, England, Argentina, and Brazil are next in line (with odds ranging from 6/1 to 9/1).
Germany, unusually, are considered long shots. They are at around 16/1 on most sportsbooks. Julian Nagelsmann’s team lost to Spain in the quarter-finals of the European Championships.
USA, co-hosts with Mexico and Canada, are at around 80/1 to win their first ever World Cup. Mexico is rated similarly, along with Uruguay and Japan.
There has not been a first-time winner of the World Cup since 1998, when France won at home. Les Bleus have since won another (2018, when Kylian Mbappe was first widely recognised as one of the best players in the world).
Brazil have the most titles in World Cup history (5), but have a relative lack of quality in attack this year.
Argentina won the last World Cup, largely putting to bed any doubts that Lionel Messi’s career could be ranked alongside those of previous greats such as Diego Maradona and Pele.
